Here's the Deal - June 9, 2025

Economy: In early Recessionary Phase (Not necessarily a recession, yet.)

Market Cycle: Bull Market

_{Week 23 of 52 for 2025: 44.23% of the way through 2025}

Weekly Note:

Short and sweet edition of Here’s the Deal this week thanks to COVID.

This week’s post will be a bit shorter than usual. I came down with this season’s COVID strain and spent a few days knocked out, and am now playing catch-up heading into the new week.

That said, it seemed like a pretty quiet and uneventful week overall...

Imagine being out of it for a few days and then logging back on with COVID brain fog to see what’s happening and greeted with the political breakup of the decade.

All over a tax and spending bill apparently. And then, for good measure, Elon Musk casually dropping his true thoughts on tariffs as a result. (As well as many other topics.)

While he may have a terrible track record of guessing at what the economy will do next, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

This is one of those moments where you get to test your beliefs. Did your opinion on a person or policy suddenly do a 180 just because someone on TV strongly insinuated that the once “good guy” is now a “bad guy”? Or did your perspective stay steady because you’ve done your own research and don’t just blow with the political winds?

That same principle applies to understanding the economy and markets. Critical and independent thinking matters greatly in this pursuit.

Personally, I found the whole episode absurd and hilarious. At least until the reality of it set in. It’s a sad moment and look for the country. And behind the chaos is a very real concern: the wheels are coming off a half-baked, historically bad economic strategy… all while we’re in the middle of a global trade fight that we started.

But a few key things did stand out this week that reinforce what we’ve been saying in Here’s the Deal for months:

More proof the US is currently in an Economic Slowdown

The notion that the U.S. economy is in a Slowdown continues to prove correct. As the Wall Street Journal had a great article about how we are headed for an “Uncomfortable Summer” as a result.

But we’ve all known that as it was correctly called here last year and continues to be confirmed just about every week now.

And just to drive home another point, we got direct confirmation from the Trump Administration itself: one of the architects behind Trump’s tariff policies publicly admitted that the impact of tariffs hasn’t yet shown up in the economic data, like inflation, but will begin to do so in the coming months.

Jobs Data: A Mess, As Expected

As usual during a slowdown, the employment data was all over the place:

• JOLTS (job openings): Higher than expected

• ADP nonfarm employment: Much lower than expected

• Job cuts: Still haven’t picked up speed

• Worker productivity: Continuing to weaken. Which often happens prior to the start of a recession, before it later spikes when remaining workers realize they’re on thin ice

• Nonfarm payrolls: Came in stronger than expected… but last April’s data was revised sharply lower

That last point is important. For those who screamed “fake data!” when earlier strong initial employment numbers were revised lower under Biden, notice how quiet they are now that it’s happening again with Trump in office. Feel free to remind them. The more people that understand this stuff, the better it is for us all.

May’s inflation reports (CPI and PPI) drop this week.

This coming week brings key inflation reports for May:

• CPI on Wednesday

• PPI on Thursday

Expect inflation to look fairly similar to last month. But if inflation comes in significantly higher than expected, especially this early in the tariff data, that would be a big red flag. The result of which would more than likely hit the stock markets, send bond yields screaming higher, and push the opportunity for rate cuts further down the road.

Which is exactly why it remains absurd that Trump is calling for rate cuts. Especially after spending the past week ramping up the pressure for a wildly irresponsible full percentage point cut.

How badly does this guy want to see inflation back to 7%, anyway?? I mean, I guess it would technically be good for his crypto sca… I mean schemes.

Markets:

The strength continues as many stocks are setting up for what could be massive short term gains. (A few of which are mapped out below.)

$SPY ( ▲ 0.78% ) S&P 500:

Look for $605, and $613.25 for levels of higher resistance.

$DIA ( ▲ 0.95% ) Dow Jones Industrial Average:

$QQQ ( ▲ 0.94% ) Nasdaq:

$IWM ( ▲ 1.62% ) Russell 2000 (Small Caps):

Here’s a few of those opportunities I was talking about:

Mining: $LUCMF ( ▲ 4.0% )  

Oil and gas: $NGS ( ▲ 2.52% )  

Drones: $UAVS ( ▲ 2.68% )  

Significant Economic Data from the previous week:

Economic Data to watch this week:

Quote of the Week:

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