- The Economy Tracker
- Posts
- Here's the Deal with Markets - November 25, 2024
Here's the Deal with Markets - November 25, 2024
Weekly Market Report
Nick Tomas
November 25, 2024 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
Economy: In Slowdown
Market Cycle: Bullish
Week 47 of 52 for 2024: 90.4% of the way through 2024
This Week in Markets
Remember that potential island top we discussed last week? It was invalidated. Just as you’d expect in a broadening bull market. This action reinforces the strength we’re seeing, as the market continues to climb and expand its base of participation.
Let me emphasize again: anyone calling this market a top or dismissing its resilience is likely missing the bigger picture. They are in a predicament of admitting they have been wrong for years, or acknowledging they aren’t as knowledgeable about markets as they wanted you to think they were.
Often, these opinions come from individuals wrestling with the reality of being consistently wrong about market direction or overstating their expertise.
The market's strength continues to shine, with another solid week of consolidation near highs. This is exactly what you'd anticipate in an environment that hints at the early stages of an economic slowdown, layered with election-year dynamics, a maturing bull market, and seasonal tailwinds coming together seamlessly.
And then—boom. Bitcoin crosses $100K for the first time. A headline-grabber, no doubt, but the real action this week was in individual stocks. Beneath the steady index performance, many names had breakout weeks. This kind of rotation and strength beneath the surface aligns perfectly with the season and this phase of the credit cycle.
Markets feel both boring and exciting right now, but in the best way possible. The small-cap index, IWM, is surging, just as history suggests it would during this time of year and at this point in the cycle. These are the moments to pay attention to, where converging trends can lead to some of the fastest and biggest gains.
It’s tempting to compare this year to 1980, given the similarities so far. But let’s remember, that was a very different point in the economic and market cycle. For that reason, I don’t expect history to repeat itself here. Instead, we’re seeing something arguably more encouraging: market breadth continues to improve, and the bull market is expanding almost flawlessly, just as you’d hope for at this stage.
Meanwhile, the appointment of Bessent as Treasury head brings a sense of stability to the markets. It’s a solid and confidence-boosting choice for markets.
The Week Ahead
Economic Data to watch:
Date and Time | Expected | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
New Home Sales | Tues, Nov 26th @ 10:00a EST | 724K | 738K |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | Wed, Nov 27th @ 10:00a EST | 2.8% | 3.0% |
Core PCE | Wed, Nov 27th @ 10:00a EST | 0.3% (MoM) (YoY) Not available | 0.3% (MoM) 2.7% (YoY) |
PCE | Wed, Nov 27th @ 10:00a EST | 0.2% (YoY) Not available. | 0.2% (MoM) 2.1% |
Earnings to watch:
WTF of the Week
Quote of the Week
““The single-best investments I’ve ever made are investments in people. Nothing else comes close. You find somebody who’s really bright, really driven and creative, and you get behind them 110%. Nothing beats that investment.”
Click the Leave a comment button if you have any questions or comments, or need something clarified. Don’t be shy. The main point here is to improve constantly. Questions and comments help us both and tells me what you are interested in learning/hearing more about.
If you enjoyed this post or found it useful, do me a favor and hit the like (heart button all the way back to the top of the post and to the left) and share it with others.
Reply