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Navigating the Turning Point
Adapting to shifting markets.
Nick Tomas
March 18, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
Table of Contents
In the 2025 Forecast I wrote:
So now that markets have “officially corrected,” let’s make some adjustments to the charts.
S&P 500 Outlook $SPY ( ▲ 0.72% )
If the recent pullback marked the short-term bottom, we should see a move toward the $581.50 – $589 range.
For a stronger confirmation, I want to see the S&P 500 push beyond $599.63 (red line on chart). If that happens, I will continue to hold my $SPX ( ▲ 0.74% ) 6,450 target (about $645 for SPY) for the index, as outlined in the 2025 Forecast.
However, if this rally stalls between $581.50 and $589 and then breaks below the recent correction low of $549.68, that would signal a major shift. In that case, we may have already seen the 2025 top and possibly even the peak of the current credit cycle.
On the other hand, if the market reaches the initial upside targets and then pulls back to the $564–$569 range, and then resumes back up, the SPX 6,450 target remains in play.
That’s the roadmap for now. If conditions change, we’ll adjust accordingly.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Outlook $DIA ( ▲ 0.01% )
If short-term bottom is in, look for a move to $428.50 - $434.
Ideally, want to see a run to over $441.13 on this move on the weekly charts.
Nasdaq Outlook $QQQ ( ▲ 1.12% )
If short-term bottom is in, look for a move to $503 - $513.
Ideally, want to see a run to over $524.88 on this move on the weekly charts.
Russell 2000 (Small Caps) Outlook $IWM ( ▲ 0.03% )
I'm less optimistic about small caps. For now, I'm watching for a move toward $212.
If the index struggles at that level and reverses lower, then the downside targets are:
$203.50
$197
$190 (if selling pressure picks up)
$180 (if the decline accelerates, similar to recent weeks)
If the selling ramps up like the last few weeks, we could easily see these lower levels tested. Especially now that IWM has experienced a Death Cross.
Wrapping Up: Key Scenarios to Watch
The best-case scenario? SPY, DIA, and QQQ all break above their respective red lines. It doesn’t matter how far above. What matters is that they clear them.
The more likely scenario is that the indices rally into the darker gray shaded area and then retrace. If that happens, the key test will be whether they hold above their recent lows. If they drop below those lows, it's a strong signal that the top is in for this credit cycle.
This is the roadmap I’m watching in the coming weeks. If the market follows this path, great. It becomes easier to track and trade around. If it deviates, no problem. I’ll step back and reassess until the right path becomes clear.
The goal in trading and investing isn’t about being 100% certain. That mindset will either get you killed or paralyze you with fear. The real skill is learning how you handle pressure in a market full of conflicting signals, weighing the pros and cons, and then taking the more obvious setups.
If I had to make a call right now? I don’t think the party is over yet. SPY, DIA, and QQQ still have a shot at making new highs before the music stops. But price action in the coming weeks will dictate whether that view holds. Stay tuned.
Why it matters even if you don’t trade or invest.
The stock market isn’t just numbers, candles, or lines on a screen. It’s a forward-looking indicator of the economy. Normally, markets are about six months ahead of economic conditions. But at the end of a credit cycle, that lead time shrinks dramatically as the economy shifts toward recession.
Right now, the data suggests we’re nearing the end of the current credit cycle. That means now is the time to pay closer attention, even if you’re not actively trading or investing.
At this stage, things still seem relatively controlled. But when the cycle truly turns, the pace accelerates fast. The key to making smart decisions; whether in business, finances, or personal planning, is being aware of the coming shift, recognizing when it arrives, managing it efficiently with a pre-established plan, and understanding when stability is likely to return.
Forewarned is forearmed.
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