Reviewing the 2024 Forecast and Performance

There’s a time and place for everything.

It’s just as important to celebrate wins as it is to look for improvements needed from failures. Without celebrating the good, the suck is that much worse.

I also believe that when you share your thoughts openly about something which affects us all daily, it’s just as important to let the world know when you’re right, as it is to acknowledge defeat and look for ways to improve when you fail.

So while this review may seem self-serving and braggadocios to some, anyone who has put it all on the line and worked their ass off toward a singular goal while making significant and life altering sacrifices to achieve a monumental and positively life changing goal will understand.

That’s your warning as much of this post is a victory lap. But hey, I fucking earned it.

More importantly, it’s important for you to know that I know what I’m doing, how long it has taken to get to this point, the insane amount of work it has taken both personally and professionally to get here, and how serious I take any insights I choose to share.

With that, let’s talk about how I nailed 2024 while most were wrongly calling for an imminent recession and market crash.

Reviewing the 2024 Forecast

While you can read the entirety of the 2024 Forecast, here are the quick highlights of predictions and outcomes:

Seriously, who else do you know that had a a better forecast across all media?

Keep in mind that almost everyone and their brother was warning of an imminent recession, even going so far as to give it a 100% probability.

But not here. As this place is for those that put in the work rather than actively search for problems and negative sentiment, and then peddle in fear.

So, yeah. A victory lap is warranted. Especially since it was the first yearly forecast which I posted.

Not bad for a rookie year of sharing my work.

Put in the work. Perform at an elite level. Tell the World you’re the best. Perform at an elite level again…

If you haven’t figured it out yet, I’m really good at this stuff. Way better than the vast majority of people who claim to be and have been making a living out of it far longer than I have.

It is said to not let your ego get too out of control as pride comes before the fall. I say, “Fuck that.”

If you work your ass off, fill all the gaps as they appear, focus on continuously improving, and continue to win when you repeatedly put money where your mouth is, then I say take a page out of fellow Sun Devil Cam Scattebo’s book:

Do the work required and then do way more than that:

Then go perform and prove that you’re the baddest motherfucker in the game:

Next, let the world know you’re the best when you step onto the big stage:

Finally, perform on the biggest stage of your career up to that point and prove once again that you’re the baddest motherfucker around:

Then give the world a look that lets them know, that you know that you are the best, and that there’s not a damn thing anyone can do about it.

Subsequently, that’s the look I gave when I closed out the 2024 trading year +60.72%, on the heels of a +62.51% 2023.

Beating all indices handily:

Not bad. I certainly could have done better. Truth is that I got caught up in both the CBOE issues with VIX options with a position in VIX calls, and simultaneous 3hr brokerage outages the morning of Aug 5th. While the losses from that morning were far beyond my control, sucked to deal with, and severely hurt my performance this year, I also exacerbated the issue by letting it get to me for far too long.

However, I took a breather for few days and quickly reassessed, which got me back in the game quickly for an epic 4th quarter run.

Sometimes shit just happens, and there’s nothing you can do about it. The key is to get over it quickly and do whatever it takes to get back on track.

Comparing my performance to those of the “Top” Hedge Funds over the same period shows that I am clearly on the right path:

So, yeah. When you work your ass off and outperform the alleged best of the best while dealing with adversity, let the world know it was no fluke and that not only do you belong, but that you’re elite.

Sure, those funds are using FAR more money than I, and the more you have the more difficult it is to move money around. But hey, I don’t make the rules. I just play the game to the best of my ability, within the rules of play, and with whatever it is I have available.

But a win is a win, and a good year is a good year.

So you’re damn right I’m gonna feel good about my 2024 performance. It is only heightened by knowing just how hard I worked to get to this point.

I tell you this not to brag… Ok. Maybe just to brag a little… Just a little 😏

More importantly I think it’s important for you to understand that I know what I am doing and I have the stats to back it up. Even more important, I put skin in the game everyday.

A piece of advice; never trust an economic analyst that does not actively manage money. By not actively trading/investing it’s easy for a person to miss when their thesis becomes wrong and not understand the importance of timing. You can’t call for an imminent recession and then take a victory lap when one finally happens 12-24+ months later. Anyone who tries this is acknowledging that they have not put in the work required to earn your trust.

But 2024 is over now, and there is a new year afoot. So time to leave the past in the rear-view mirror where it belongs while taking the lessons learned with us into the new year and beyond.

Now that you know how well the 2024 Forecast played out and how using it set me up for a good year trading, be on the lookout for the 2025 Forecast in the next day or two.

Hint: it’s a drastically different forecast than last year’s.

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Click the Leave a comment button if you have any questions or comments, or need something clarified. Don’t be shy. The main point here is to improve constantly. Questions and comments help us both and tells me what you are interested in learning/hearing more about.

Learn. Improve. Pass on.