Road Trips, Politics, and Reexamination

Summer is Usually Pretty Boring for Markets… Usually.

Summer is usually a time when markets slow down and become boring. Listless, even. Same goes for the economic data and news.

Usually.

But this summer? Not even close.

We’ll get into what’s making this one so different soon. But first, let’s talk about something that is typical of summer: a slowdown in pace. I’ve found that this typical seasonal lull is a good opportunity to step away from the screens, regroup, and take a clear, fresh look at everything I track. Both in the economy and in the markets. I use this time to go over my entire process, from top to bottom, and revisit the rules I’ve picked up over the years that help keep me on the right path.

Now, if you’ve been reading for the last several months, you know I’ve been highly critical of the current administration’s approach to restructuring the economy and global trade. And to be fair, I actually agree with several of the reasons they’ve given for wanting to make changes. But I’m deeply disappointed in how those changes are being implemented: the tone, the messaging, the tactics, and the multiple pardons handed out to people who defrauded investors and taxpayers alike. It’s regressive in all the wrong ways.

That topic deserves its own full breakdown. One that highlights why many of these decisions are unprecedented, and why most people aren’t hearing about them as it’s complicated stuff, and many would rather stay quiet than risk hurting “their side.”

But that’s for another post.

Let’s get back to the summer reset.

Every year, I use this season to clear the deck and start fresh. It’s when I revisit the best rules I’ve developed over the years to help me make sense of what’s going on and what’s coming. I just got back from an incredible three-week road trip around the country in which I drove over 5,000 miles and visited over a half-dozen towns and cities. As soon as I was home, I dove back into my process of reviewing everything from the foundation up to make sure I haven’t veered too far off course over the past year.

During that trip, I had a number of deep, passionate conversations with people who generally see things the way I do. We debated what’s happening in the economy and what it could mean for the months and years ahead. Some of those conversations turned heated. A couple of people even accused me of being “too political.” Which I felt was odd, considering I’ve voted for the current President three times.

But my frustration isn’t about political sides. It’s about how hard it has become to get past the political filters through which everything is now seen.

So there I am, annoyed and reviewing my rules… when I came across this slide:

Dammit.

That moment was a gut check. A reminder of why this process is so important. If you don’t stop to assess where you are and whether your current path is aligned with your intended target, you risk drifting into territory you never meant to enter.

To be transparent: I purposely left in some harsh language toward the administration the past few months. I wanted to make my frustration with the economic chaos clear. After all, I voted for these folks. And I believe it’s even more important to speak up when your own “team” is making decisions that go directly against what they claim to stand for. Especially when they choose to attack anyone who disagrees by calling them “stupid” “buffoons” or “un-American.”

If that’s the tone they want to set, then I thought, I agree to those terms. After all, I see the work history and multiple wrong economic predictions over the decades of those making these statements. At least I’ll show up with facts, history, and receipts.

But when I saw that circled rule again, it brought me back to what a couple of people asked me during those conversations on the road:

1. “What’s your ultimate goal with this project?”

2. “Is what you’re doing right now the best way to get there?”

Those two questions eventually cut through everything.

Ironically, over the past few weeks I’ve had a couple of friends reach out to thank me for helping them make sense of the bigger economic picture. Both told me they feel they now have a clearer grasp of what’s really happening. And here’s the kicker, they both voted for the current administration.

It just goes to show: no matter what you do, someone’s always going to get upset.

My goals with this newsletter are simple:

1. To sharpen my own analysis. Writing everything out forces clarity. It’s made me a much better trader.

2. To help others learn how the system actually works. Whether you’re a business owner, investor, or simply curious about how the economy functions, I want to help you understand how to track it in a way that matters to you.

It’s not just about markets or trading. It’s also about cutting through the noise to see who actually understands what’s going on… and who’s just pretending they do by anchoring their “analysis” to their preferred political viewpoint.

And I’ll be honest, I expected a lot of political bias in the world of financial journalism. But even I’ve been surprised (and disappointed) by just how many once-respected names are operating almost entirely from a political script. There are very few who don’t. Fewer than I thought. And I’m already a pretty cynical guy when it comes to politics.

That’s great for their business as it is much easier to lie to someone than it is to convince them they’ve been lied to using facts and data. But it’s terrible for anyone who wants a better understanding of the economy.

But here’s the good news: when the truth is rare, it becomes valuable. And that’s when some of the best opportunities show up.

Manufacturing Consent

Right on cue, my friend Jason Perz dropped an incredible post this week titled:
“100 Years of Market Manipulation: How Traders Are Guided Into Positions Without Realizing It.”
Every songwriter has a song and/or album or two they wish they wrote. This is one of those pieces I wish I had written. It’s relevant anytime, but it’s especially relevant now.

🔗 Read it here

When I reached out to Jason to see if I could gift it, he took down the paywall so that you all have access to the whole post.

Jason’s piece is an incredible look into why information seems so distorted and the roots of how the current iteration of “news” and information came to be in the USA.

To understand markets and the economy, it is imperative that you understand the concepts Jason writes about. So, I highly recommend giving it a thoughtful read.

What’s Next

A lot has happened since my last post. And while summer is usually when things slow down, this one has been anything but. Honestly, that’s an understatement.

I used to think putting together a weekly newsletter would be tough to keep fresh… and easy to throw together over the weekend. At first, it was. Then this year happened. 😂

So in the next few posts, we’re going to get caught up on:

• Strong Q2 GDP growth

• Deteriorating unemployment trends

• Inflation, which now looks to be re-accelerating

• The evolving rate cut timeline

• Tariff revenue figures

• The firing and hiring of a key government stats official

• Renewed attacks on the Fed—and Jerome Powell specifically

A Window Into the Real Economy—From the Road

One key observation from my recent travels: there were far fewer people on the roads this summer than in the past few years. Very similar routes, same time of year. Gas stations and rest stops that were packed in recent summers were wide open. That tells me something simple but important: fewer people are traveling.

But here’s where it gets even more telling. The RVs and travel trailers I did see were almost all brand new. I’m not sure I saw a single one older than five to ten years, and many were high-end. That suggests it’s largely wealthier households still hitting the road. Meanwhile, the middle class and working class appear to be pulling back. Either because they have to due to tighter finances, or because they’re choosing to be more cautious with their spending.

To add another layer, I spoke with folks who live and work in multiple vacation towns. The consensus? This summer is slower than the past few. The only real exception has been the long holiday weekends, which have been busier than usual. That tells me many households are condensing their travel plans and opting for one or two big holiday trips rather than taking multiple smaller and/or extended ones throughout the season.

Let me be clear: this is all anecdotal. But it lines up with the type of observational work I’ve done over the past two decades. And in the last five years, these travel patterns along with other “on-the-ground” signals helped reinforce what the hard data kept saying: the U.S. economy was not in recession, no matter how loudly the perma-bears or politically motivated commentators insisted otherwise.

This year? It feels very different. And frankly, this is exactly what I would expect to see in the midst of an economic slowdown. Spending is softening. Discretionary travel seemed to be down. And the squeeze is becoming more visible.

This is something to keep an eye on as the 2025 Summer Travel was predicted to exceed the last few years, especially over-the-road travel. However, that was not what I experienced. Which was a shock as was the difference in the drop-off I saw from the past few years.

Economic data tells us what has already happened and where it is trending.

But these kinds of real-world observations can help confirm the current trend of the economy according to the data.

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